Sunday, March 2, 2014
OSCAR DAY! Predictions for your Oscar ballots
After much anticipation, the night of the golden statue has arrived. You are making your themed appetizers for your Oscars party and have your ballots printed, but who to choose?! You don't want to be the sad one at the end of the night after you made the party foul of picking the wrong person in a shoo-in category. Think about what that will do to your pride! To your reputation!
So let me help you. There are a couple of close races and a couple of predestine wins. I may not get them all, but I'll get you close enough to win that coveted Oscar party statue.
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave
Historical, troubling, somewhat slow - all things the Academy loves to vote for. It wasn't the best movie I had ever seen, and there is definitely potential for a dark horse to come from behind, but based on historical stats and the fact that this movie has won Best Picture in most of this awards seasons ceremonies - it's a safe bet.
Secondary Picks: Gravity. It was like Cast Away, but in space. Sandra Bullock's hair got as much love from me as Tom Hanks' when I saw him parading around with Wilson. HOWEVER, this movie will win if the voters are going more for 'ground breaking' art form. It's not always the case. Remember when Hurt Locker won over Avatar? It's a toss up. Then there is American Hustle - the stacked cast con movie. The chances of this winning are not as high as 12 or Gravity, but you never know.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarno, Gravity
As I said, Gravity was a technical marvel. Cuarno has won every director award this season including the Directors Guild Award - and it is rare for someone to win that and not win at the Oscars...except for last year when Ben Affleck won all the pre-directing awards and wasn't even nominated by the Academy - so rude, so so rude.
Secondary: I just don't think it will go to anyone else, but if I had to pick a second - Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave.
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Where did McConaughey come from? The once RomCom shirtless bongo playing neanderthal is now being hailed as one of the best actors of the year. He was pretty damn brilliant in Dallas Buyers Club and if he won, it would not by any means be a bad choice.
Secondary: Leonardo Dicaprio in Wolf of Wall Street. The world just wants to see Leo finally take home a statue. He has been trying to break free of the curse of the heartthrob actor for years with no avail. If the voters decide that enough is enough and the man needs some metal - he could take home the win.
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
This seems to be a predestined award by the movie gods. Cate has won anything and everything this year in the precursory awards - it is hers to lose, and I don't think she is going to.
Secondary: Meryl Streep in August Osage County. Ugh, Meryl rips my heart in two with her performance in the depressingly realistic film. Every year Meryl Streep doesn't win an Oscar, is another year Meryl Streep is robbed. Don't count on it kids - they'll give it to her another with nomination number 20 - this is only 18.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
She plays a slave girl that gets raped and beat. That is some brutal material that the young actress had to live out. This is a pretty close race, however. Jennifer Lawrence is at the top of her game right now and was pretty fantastic in American Hustle. The reason I give this to Nyong'o is - Jennifer just won Best Actress last year. Repeats are so rare, you don't even speak about them. The last time it happened was to Tom Hank decades ago. And there is only one Tom Hanks.
Secondary: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle. Who knows, America's golden girl could do the unthinkable. The winning interviews would be funny to watch.
Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Is it possible for the same movie to take the best actor and supporting actor trophies? Yes. And they probably will, if everything goes according to plan. Jared Leto is a lock. Cate and Jared are my cushion points on my Oscar ballot - I just know I will get them.
Secondary: I literally don't even know who the other nominees are. Why would I need to?
Best Animated Feature
No contest. Even I liked Frozen, and as a rule - I hate all things created for children.
Secondary: Nope. No other picks.
Prediction: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle
The race seems to be between Her and American Hustle. Because I literally didn't hate a movie last year as much as I hated Her - I will pick Hustle. Don't fail me Academy.
Secondary: Spike Jonez for Her. The story was pretty imaginative, horrifying and generally terrible, but some people liked it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
The movie was based on a book by the guy who was actually the slave who was kidnapped. And a story well conveyed Mr. Ridley. You just can't beat that.
Secondary: I hear Philomina was pretty good too.
And those are the main ones. Look for Gravity to win most of the technical awards, while The Great Gatsby will probably take the visuals. And there is a chance that a Jackass Film will win Make-Up and Hair Styling for Bad Grandpa - but I think the Academy members would rather take cyanide. (Vote Dallas Buyers Club for that one - trust.)
I was also on CBC's Daybreak this morning talking with host Russell Bowers about the awards. You can listen to the segment here: